"BRIEFING BULLETIN: New Population Reports" August 4, 2006. Research and Educational Services. New York State United Teachers.

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New Population Reports
BRIEFING BULLETIN

August 2006

Number 06-21

This Briefing Bulletin highlights two recent reports that present population figures that are deserving of review. The reports are:

The United States Census Bureau report of June 21 presents detailed population estimates for the years 2000 through 2005. There is data available for individual states that are broken down by county and smaller municipalities. The data shows, for example, that while New York State's population increased by 277,809 to 19.2 million people over the five years, upstate large cities are continuing to lose population.

The Brookings Institution issued a report in June of this year titled Where DidThey Go? The Decline of Middle Income Neighborhoods in Metropolitan America. This report analyzes 1970 to 2000 decennial census data for families and neighborhoods in the 100 largest metropolitan areas and in cities and suburbs of 12 selected metropolitan areas. The report finds that middle income neighborhoods, as a proportion of all metropolitan neighborhoods, declined from 58 percent in 1970 to 41 percent in 2000.

The remainder of this Briefing Bulletin offers additional information from each of the reports and lists web sites where the reports can be accessed.

Census Bureau Report

The top ten incorporated places of over 100,000 in population in the United States with the highest growth rate from 2000 to 2005 are in Arizona, Nevada, Florida and California. The rate of growth for these top ten communities such as North Las Vegas City, Nevada; Port St. Lucie, Florida; and Roseville, California exceeds 32 percent.

In New York State conversely, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo are estimated to have population decreases of more than 3 percent from April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005.

Yonkers population for this five-year period increased 0.2 percent while New York City's population increased 1.7 percent.

Other New York State figures for this five-year period include: Erie County declined by 18,622; Monroe County declined by 2,331; Onondaga County declined by 379; Westchester County grew by 14,873; Nassau County declined by 3,317; and Suffolk County grew by 50,731.

All of this data and more, including tables that break down each county by town and city, can be found at the Census Bureau web site as follows:

This web site contains the press release and the PDF's for much of the data — national and state: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/007001.html

This web site gives New York State data by county and then broken down into city and town for the years 2000 to 2005. http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/tables/SUB-EST2005-05-36.xls

Brookings Report — Where Did They Go?

This report examines the decline of middle income neighborhoods in metropolitan America. The report looks at the largest 100 metropolitan neighborhoods and at the cities and suburbs of 12 selected metropolitan areas. This report and analysis uses data from the Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB) created by a company called GeoLytics in conjunction with the Urban Institute. The NCDB uses census data from 2000 and creates census tracts ranging in size from 2500 to 8000 persons that approximate neighborhoods by capturing a group of residents with similar population characteristics, economic status and living conditions. Census data from 1990, 1980 and 1970 were adjusted to allow comparisons to the 2000 census data.

The income comparisons that follow were developed by using the Area Median Income (AMI) and then defining the middle class as persons with income between 80 percent and 120 percent of the AMI. Those above the 120 percent of the AMI are higher income and those below the 80 percent are lower income.

The Report made findings as follows:

Middle-income neighborhoods, as a proportion of all metropolitan neighborhoods, declined from 58 percent in 1970 to 41 percent in 2000. The proportions of families with lower incomes and higher incomes have risen, while the proportion with middle incomes has fallen. Families earning between 80 percent and 120 percent of their metropolitan area median incomes — what many would consider to be "middle class" — shrank from 28 percent in 1970 to less than 22 percent by 2000.

Between 1970 and 2000, lower-income families became more likely to live in lower-income neighborhoods, and higher-income families became more likely to live in higher-income neighborhoods. Only 37 percent of lower-income families lived in middle-income neighborhoods in 2000, down from 55 percent in 1970.

Only 23 percent of central-city neighborhoods in the 12 large metropolitan areas had a middle-income profile in 2000, down from 45 percent in 1970.

The consistent trend evident across the largest metropolitan areas and selected central cities and suburbs is one of a shrinking proportion of families with middle incomes, and an even faster decline in neighborhoods with middle-income character.

The entire report with accompanying data, charts, and explanations of methodologies used to conduct the analyses in the report can be found at: http://www.brook.edu/index/reports.htm and then clicking on this report.

NOTE: New York State's population is growing at a slower rate than the rest of the nation. From 2000 to 2005, New York State's population grew 1.5 percent while the entire nation grew by 5.3 percent. This is significant as federal aid for a number of programs is allocated by population and New York's share of such aids would be adversely affected. Also, Congressional seats are allocated by population. Because of the most recent 2000 census, New York State went from 31 seats to 29 seats.

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